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Skyharbour’s Partner Company North Shore Uranium Provides Exploration Update at Falcon Uranium Project

Investing

Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (TSX-V: SYH ) (OTCQX: SYHBF ) (Frankfurt: SC1P ) (‘Skyharbour’ or the ‘Company’), is pleased to announce that its partner company, North Shore Uranium (‘North Shore’), has provided an update on its exploration activities. North Shore is earning into Skyharbour’s Falcon Project and also holds the West Bear Project (‘Falcon’ and ‘West Bear’) at the eastern margin of the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan. The two properties are approximately 90 kilometres apart along a southwest-northeast trend. North Shore may acquire an initial 80% interest in Falcon by issuing common shares having an aggregate value of CAD $1,225,000, making aggregate cash payments of $525,000 to Skyharbour, and incurring an aggregate of $3,550,000 in exploration expenditures on the property over a three-year period.

Location Map of Falcon Project:

https://skyharbourltd.com/_resources/maps/Sky-SouthFalconOption.jpg?v=0.1

North Shore is targeting near-surface basement-hosted uranium mineralization at Falcon and basement-and sandstone-hosted mineralization at West Bear that can be associated with basement structures and electromagnetic (‘EM’) conductor systems. Working with extensive geologic and geophysical datasets, North Shore is now prioritizing uranium exploration targets on the two properties in preparation for future field work including potential drill programs. This news release summarizes targeting efforts being undertaken in Zone 1 at Falcon where North Shore discovered near-surface uranium mineralization in two drill holes in early 2024 and has identified 12 exploration targets.

Mr. Brooke Clements, President and CEO of North Shore stated: ‘ We believe that the eastern margin of the prolific Athabasca Basin is a great setting for a major new uranium discovery. Building upon our maiden 2024 Falcon drill program, our target generation work is allowing us to build a quality pipeline of potential drill targets.’

Falcon Property Targets:

Falcon is located approximately 30 kilometres east of the active Key Lake uranium mill and former mine. Between 1983 and 2002, two deposits at Key Lake produced a total of 209.9 million pounds of U 3 O 8 at an average grade of over 2.0% 1 . There is no guarantee that a uranium deposit similar to Key Lake will be discovered at Falcon. The uranium discovery potential at Falcon is significant and includes shallow basement-hosted unconformity-style and pegmatite-hosted mineralization. In early 2024, North Shore discovered near-surface uranium mineralization in two drill holes.

Map Showing Falcon Exploration Targets and Priority Zones:

https://www.skyharbourltd.com/_resources/images/Map-showing-Falcon-exploration-targets-and-priority-zones.jpg

North Shore has divided Falcon into three uranium exploration zones, 1, 2 and 3. To date, North Shore has identified 36 uranium targets at Falcon with 12 of those being in Zone 1. The targets have been selected based on analysis of multiple datasets including interpretation by Condor North Consulting LLC (‘Condor’), Earthfield Technologies Inc., Skyharbour, TerraLogic Exploration Inc. and North Shore. The following are some of the criteria being used to define and prioritize targets:

EM: Strength, character and orientation of the EM conductor system. EM data from three airborne surveys was analyzed by Condor and single peak and double peak responses were selected from profile lines. EMIT Maxwell software was used to create subsurface models of interpreted conductors from portions of Zones 1 and 2 to optimize placement of drill collars in early 2024. North Shore expects to prepare more Maxwell plate models to assist with prioritizing targets. Structural Interpretation: Potential faults are selected using airborne magnetic data and interpretation of the geology. Basement-hosted uranium deposits are often fault-controlled. Gravity and Radiometrics: Airborne gravity-magnetic-radiometric surveys were flown over Falcon in 2022. Higher uranium spectral responses can be indicative of uranium-enriched surface geological features. Gravity lows can be associated with alteration proximal to uranium deposits. Evaluation of Historical Exploration Datasets: Significant uranium exploration programs were conducted from the late 1960’s to the early 1980’s and in the 2000’s. Data from these programs is publicly available and complements more recent data acquired by North Shore.

Initial Focus Area in Zone 1:

Within Zone 1, the exploration priority area includes the northeast-southwest trending conductor/structural zone where uranium was discovered by drilling at P03 and P08. As reported on May 16 th , 2024, at P03, a zone from 196.6 to 209.0m included an interpreted brittle fault zone with graphite-rich fault gouge and two samples that returned 345 and 378 ppm U 3 O 8 . At P08, a 4.7m interval between 42.3-47.0m returned 316 ppm U 3 O 8 including one sample with 572 ppm U 3 O 8 . Also, at P08, a brittle, altered pegmatitic and graphitic fault zone was intersected between 102.3-105.5m, the modelled depth of the EM conductor.

Uranium Mineralization Discovered by North Shore in 2024 at Targets P03 and P08:

https://www.skyharbourltd.com/_resources/images/U3O8-mineralization-discovered-by-North-Shore-in-2024-at-targets-P03-and-P08.jpg

Based on work completed to date, North Shore has prioritized three target areas in Zone 1 for potential future drilling:

3.0km trend from target FA006 to FA003: This trend includes the new uranium discoveries at P03 and P08 and target F004 where two interpreted faults intersect, and the EM conductor is offset. Using the structural knowledge gained by the drilling and further interpretation of the Maxwell conductor plates, several sites will be selected for potential drilling. Target FA003: Within the area described above, two prominent parallel northeast-trending EM conductors each change orientation at FA003. A potentially significant structure as defined by a magnetic low also splits into two separate potential subparallel structures. In addition, there is a prominent gravity low anomaly that is entirely land-based and a strong uranium spectral response in the airborne radiometric dataset. Target FA002: This target is defined by two strong parallel EM conductors and a parallel magnetic low. The conductor system is intersected by an interpreted cross-cutting fault. In addition, just southwest of the target there is an isolated airborne radiometric uranium high.

Next Steps:

North Shore will continue prioritizing targets at Falcon in an effort to maximize the chances of success in its next drill program. As currently planned, that drill program would have two components, follow-up drilling along the 3.0 km trend where North Shore discovered near-surface uranium mineralization in early 2024 and the testing of new targets within Zone 1 and potentially elsewhere. Additional updates on North Shore’s target prioritization efforts will be provided on an ongoing basis.

Falcon Uranium Project:

The Falcon Property, which constitutes part of North Shore’s Falcon Property, contains eleven mineral claims comprising approximately 42,908 hectares approximately 50 km east of the Key Lake mine. Nine of the claims are from Skyharbour’s original South Falcon Uranium Project and the remaining two claims are from Skyharbour’s Foster River Project. Historical uranium mineralization discovered at Falcon is shallow and is hosted in several geological settings including classic Athabasca-style basement mineralization associated with well-developed EM conductors. At the EWA target, up to 0.492% U 3 O 8 and 1,300 ppm lead was encountered in outcrop grab samples (Sask. Mineral Deposits Index [SMDI] 5038). Historical grab sampling at Knob Lake (SMDI 1014) also encountered up to 0.01% U 3 O 8 in an outcrop of pegmatite, while anomalous nickel, copper, and molybdenum were found in historical grab samples from the Fraser North target area (SMDI’s 1125 and 1126).

A well-defined northeast-trending, locally folded, electromagnetic conductor system runs throughout the Property, which was defined by airborne and ground geophysical surveys by JNR Resources (‘JNR’) in the 2000’s. In 2008 JNR conducted a drill campaign at the property area. Of the 47 holes drilled that year, 28 holes (totaling 7,348 metres) were drilled on the South Falcon Uranium Property at the Walker (14 holes), Walker South (7 holes), and EWA target areas (6 holes). At the Walker and South Walker targets, which lie along the aforementioned EM conductor system, structurally disrupted and variably altered metasediments (including graphitic pelitic gneisses) with anomalous boron, copper, molybdenum, nickel, cobalt, arsenic, and vanadium were encountered in several drill holes. During this same drill campaign, the Fraser Lakes Zone B uranium deposit was discovered approximately four kilometres east of the Walker South target on a refolded extension of the EM conductor system. At the EWA target, which lies along a separate northeast-trending EM conductor, anomalous uranium, boron, lead, and molybdenum were encountered in structurally disrupted pegmatites; the best result was 0.235% U 3 O 8 over 0.5 m (within a 3.5 m interval of 0.113% U 3 O 8 ) in hole WYL-08-501 (Sask. Mineral Assessment File 74H02-0045).

Furthermore, in 2022, Skyharbour completed a FALCON® airborne gravity gradiometer and magnetic survey over nine of the eleven claims at the Falcon Property. This new geophysical data will assist North Shore in prioritizing areas along the EM conductor system for drilling. Over 30 kilometres of the EM conductor system remains untested on the Falcon Property. North Shore’s initial focus will be on the two claims formerly part of the Foster Project (geophysics), and on generating drill targets on three claims at the southeastern end of the EM conductor systems including Knob Lake, which shows similarities to the Fraser Lakes Zone B deposit approximately 6 km to the northeast and several other high-priority targets elsewhere along the main EM conductor system.

Significant potential exists on the project for basement-hosted, unconformity-related uranium deposits like those further to the north in the Wollaston Domain (i.e. Eagle Point, Rabbit Lake, Key Lake and others), as well as for pegmatite/granite-hosted (i.e. alaskite-type) U-Th-REE mineralization like at the Fraser Lakes Zone B deposit on Skyharbour’s adjacent South Falcon East Property, currently under option to Tisdale Clean Energy.

The Option Agreement:

North Shore may acquire an initial 80% interest in the Property by issuing common shares of the Resulting Issuer (‘Shares’) having an aggregate value of CAD $1,225,000; making aggregate cash payments of CAD $525,000; and incurring an aggregate of CAD $3,550,000 in exploration expenditures on the Property over a three-year period. Once North Shore has earned an initial 80% interest in the Property, North Shore may acquire the remaining 20% interest in the Property within 90 business days by issuing Shares having a value of CAD $5,000,000, and making a cash payment of CAD $5,000,000 to Skyharbour. If North Shore does not elect to acquire the remaining 20% interest, a joint venture will be formed with Skyharbour holding a 20% participating interest.

North Shore will be the operator of the exploration programs during the earn-in stage and for the joint venture if formed. Two claims totaling 10,673 hectares that form part of Skyharbour’s Foster River Property are subject to a one percent (1%) NSR royalty payable to Skyharbour. The remaining nine claims totaling 32,235 hectares that comprise Skyharbour’s South Falcon Point Property are subject to a two percent (2%) NSR royalty payable to Denison Mines Corp. (‘Denison’) with North Shore having the right to purchase one percent of the royalty from Denison at anytime by paying $1 million. All Shares will be subject to a four-month-and-one-day statutory hold period in accordance with applicable securities laws.

Qualified Person:

The technical information in this news release has been prepared in accordance with the Canadian regulatory requirements set out in National Instrument 43-101 and reviewed and approved by David Billard, P.Geo., a Consulting Geologist for Skyharbour as well as a Qualified Person.

About North Shore Uranium Ltd:

North Shore is a mineral exploration company focused on uranium exploration at the eastern margin of the Athabasca Basin through its Falcon property which will increase from 12,800 to 55,700 hectares with the addition of the claims subject to the Agreement, and the West Bear property located 90 kilometres to the northeast.

About Skyharbour Resources Ltd.:

Skyharbour holds an extensive portfolio of uranium exploration projects in Canada’s Athabasca Basin and is well positioned to benefit from improving uranium market fundamentals with twenty-nine projects, ten of which are drill-ready, covering over 580,000 hectares (over 1.4 million acres) of land. Skyharbour has acquired from Denison Mines, a large strategic shareholder of the Company, a 100% interest in the Moore Uranium Project which is located 15 kilometres east of Denison’s Wheeler River project and 39 kilometres south of Cameco’s McArthur River uranium mine. Moore is an advanced-stage uranium exploration property with high-grade uranium mineralization at the Maverick Zone that returned drill results of up to 6.0% U 3 O 8 over 5.9 metres including 20.8% U 3 O 8 over 1.5 metres at a vertical depth of 265 metres. Adjacent to the Moore Uranium Project is Skyharbour’s Russell Lake Uranium Project optioned from Rio Tinto, which hosts several high-grade uranium drill intercepts over a large property area with robust exploration upside potential. The Company is actively advancing these projects through exploration and drill programs.

Skyharbour has joint-ventures with industry-leader Orano Canada Inc., Azincourt Energy and Thunderbird Resources (previously Valor) at the Preston, East Preston and Hook Lake Projects, respectively. The Company also has several active earn-in option partners including: CSE-listed Basin Uranium Corp. at the Mann Lake Uranium Project; CSE-listed Medaro Mining Corp. at the Yurchison Project; TSX-V listed North Shore Uranium at the Falcon Project; and TSX-V listed Tisdale Clean Energy at the South Falcon East Project which is host to the Fraser Lakes Zone B uranium and thorium deposit. In aggregate, Skyharbour has now signed earn-in option agreements with partners that total to over $33 million in partner-funded exploration expenditures, over $27 million worth of shares being issued and over $20 million in cash payments coming into Skyharbour, assuming that these partner companies complete their entire earn-ins at the respective projects.

Skyharbour’s goal is to maximize shareholder value through new mineral discoveries, committed long-term partnerships, and the advancement of exploration projects in geopolitically favourable jurisdictions.

Skyharbour’s Uranium Project Map in the Athabasca Basin:

https://www.skyharbourltd.com/_resources/images/SKY_SaskProject_Locator_2024-02-14_V2.jpg

To find out more about Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (TSX-V: SYH) visit the Company’s website at www.skyharbourltd.com .

Skyharbour Resources Ltd.

‘Jordan Trimble’
_________________________________

Jordan Trimble
President and CEO

For further information contact myself or:
Nicholas Coltura
Investor Relations Manager
‎Skyharbour Resources Ltd.
‎Telephone: 604-558-5847
‎Toll Free: 800-567-8181
‎Facsimile: 604-687-3119
‎Email: info@skyharbourltd.com

NEITHER THE TSX VENTURE EXCHANGE NOR ITS REGULATION SERVICES PROVIDER ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE CONTENT OF THIS NEWS RELEASE.

The securities offered have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the ‘U.S. Securities Act’) or any U.S. state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, United States persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act and applicable U.S. state securities laws. This press release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in the United States, nor in any other jurisdiction.

This release includes certain statements that may be deemed to be ‘forward-looking statements’. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address events or developments that management of the Company expects, are forward-looking statements, including the Private Placement. Although management believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements if management’s beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors, should change. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements, include market prices, exploration and development successes, regulatory approvals, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. Please see the public filings of the Company at www.sedar.com for further information.

News Provided by GlobeNewswire via QuoteMedia

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Trillion Energy International: Focused on Oil and Natural Gas Exploration, Production, and Distribution in Turkey and Europe

Investing

Trillion Energy (CSE:TCF,OTCQB:TRLEF,Frankfurt:Z62) is a key player in Europe and Turkey’s energy market, focusing on oil and gas exploration projects. Strategic investments and infrastructure set to meet energy demand in 2024 and beyond.

Trillion Energy operates primarily in the Black Sea region, where it has been rapidly increasing its natural gas production at SASB gas field since 2022. The company also expands into oil and gas exploration, particularly in Southeast Turkey. With established infrastructure, including gas plants and pipelines, the company is set to play a critical role in meeting the region’s energy demand in 2024 and beyond.

The SASB Gas Field in the Black Sea, off Turkey, is a significant natural gas project redeveloped by Trillion Energy. The gas field has produced over 43 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas. SASB plays a crucial role in Turkey’s domestic energy supply

Company Highlights

Holds a 49 percent interest in the Black Sea’s SASB gas field, with 323 billion cubic feet (BCF) of original gas in place (OGIP) and proven reserves valued at USD $421 million (NPV10).Production increased by 300 percent from 2022 to 2023, with 17+ wells planned for development.Focus on high-impact oil exploration in Southeast Turkey, targeting fields with production rates of 10,000 barrels per day.Raised $55 million in equity and $15 million in subordinated debt for ongoing projects.Successfully drilled 5 long-reach natural gas production wells using novel technology in the Black Sea.

This Trillion Energy profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

Click here to connect with Trillion Energy (CSE:TCF,OTCQB:TRLEF,Frankfurt:Z62) to receive an Investor Presentation

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Business

Boeing freezes hiring in sweeping cost cuts as it grapples with factory worker strike

Business

Boeing announced sweeping cost cuts Monday, including a hiring freeze, a pause on nonessential staff travel and a reduction on supplier spending to preserve cash as it deals with a strike by more than 30,000 factory workers.

Boeing factory workers, mostly in the Seattle area, started walking off the job early Friday after overwhelmingly rejecting a tentative labor deal, halting most of Boeing’s aircraft production.

The manufacturer will make “significant reductions” to supplier spending and stop most purchase orders for its 737 Max, 767 and 777 jetliners, CFO Brian West said in a note to staff. It was the first clear sign of how the strike will affect the hundreds of suppliers that rely on Boeing work.

The financial impact of the strike will depend on how long it lasts, but Boeing is focused on conserving cash, West said at a Morgan Stanley conference Friday. He said the company’s new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, wants to get back to the bargaining table right away to reach a new deal.

“We are also considering the difficult step of temporary furloughs for many employees, managers and executives in the coming weeks,” West said.

On Friday, Moody’s put all of Boeing’s credit ratings on review for a downgrade and Fitch Ratings said a prolonged strike could put Boeing at risk of a downgrade. That could drive up the borrowing costs of a manufacturer that already has mounting debt.

Boeing burned about $8 billion in the first half of the year as production slowed in the wake of a near-catastrophic door-panel blowout at the start of the year.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Business

Amazon workers must return to office full time, CEO says

Business

Amazon is requiring its workers to return to the office full time.

In a note published Monday by the e-commerce giant, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who took over from founder Jeff Bezos in 2020, said the move to end the company’s hybrid model was designed toward ‘being better set up to invent, collaborate, and be connected enough to each other and our culture to deliver the absolute best for customers and the business.’

He noted that the company’s three-day-a-week policy, instituted in 2023, had only reinforced the view that a full return was necessary.

‘When we look back over the last five years, we continue to believe that the advantages of being together in the office are significant,’ Jassy said.

The change will take effect starting in January 2025. The company will still respect extenuating circumstances, like caring for a sick child, and pre-approved work-from-home or hybrid arrangements.

Amazon joins a growing list of major U.S. firms returning to a five-days-a-week office policy, including Boeing, JP Morgan Chase and UPS.

However, according to data from FlexIndex, a firm that tracks company office policies, a majority of U.S. firms still offer hybrid arrangements.

The data does show bigger companies leading the way in pushing for more in-office full-time policies.

But notably, Jassy said he wants Amazon to operate as if it were ‘the world’s largest startup’ — a sentiment Bezos, Amazon’s founder, often stressed.

“That means having a passion for constantly inventing for customers,’ Jassy said, ‘strong urgency (for most big opportunities, it’s a race!), high ownership, fast decision-making, scrappiness and frugality, deeply-connected collaboration (you need to be joined at the hip with your teammates when inventing and solving hard problems), and a shared commitment to each other.”

Jassy also announced a move to reduce ‘bureaucracy’ within the firm, hinting at unintended consequences from Amazon’s aggressive hiring following pandemic reopenings — and possibly opening the door for layoffs. Jassy asked employee units to ‘increase the ratio of individual contributors to managers’ by at least 15% by the end of Q1 2025.

‘As we have grown our teams as quickly and substantially as we have the last many years, we have understandably added a lot of managers,’ Jassy said. ‘In that process, we have also added more layers than we had before. It’s created artifacts that we’d like to change.’

An Amazon spokesperson did not respond to a follow-up request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Stocks

A Half Point Fed Rate Cut? The Stock Market Thinks So

Stocks

This week’s stock market action may have caught many investors by surprise. After last week’s massive selloff, this week’s turnaround reignited investor enthusiasm in equities. Large-cap growth stocks were the leading asset class in the early part of the trading week, and, by Friday, the clear leaders were the mid- and large-cap stocks.

This week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that inflation has cooled, which means the Fed will probably cut interest rates. More optimistic is the thinking that there may be more than the 25 basis points (bps) we were expecting last week.

Broader Market Index Price Action

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) closed higher for the week. The S&P 500 and the Dow are trading close to their August highs, but the Nasdaq has some catching up to do. In Nasdaq’s defense, it was the hardest hit among the three.

The Nasdaq’s daily chart gives a clearer picture of where the index stands now, technically speaking, battling against resistance from the downtrend line. A break above this line would mean the bulls are still in the lead, but a break above the August high would indicate bulls are charging to the finish line.

FIGURE 1. WILL THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE BREAK THROUGH ITS DOWNTREND? A break above the downtrend would be bullish for the tech-heavy index, but a more confirming move would be a break above its August high.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If you participated in the “dip buying” this week, the resistance of the downward trendline is one to watch carefully. And if you missed buying on the September dip, a break above the trendline should be an early signal to prepare to add positions, but waiting for the index to break above its August high would be wiser.

There are a couple of factors to keep in mind. One is that it’s still September, a seasonally weak month for stocks. The second is there’s an FOMC meeting next week. Investors expect an interest rate cut to be announced, but how much will the Fed cut rates? The odds of a 50 basis point cut have risen since last week; as of this writing, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps cut is 51%. The probability of a 50 bps is 49%. These percentages drastically differ from last week’s odds, when the odds for a 25 bps rate cut were above 70%.

The stock market is acting like it expects a 50 bps cut. If the Fed cuts 25 bps, though, the market could be disappointed, so tread carefully. A lot is riding on the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Small Cap Revival

The S&P Small Cap Index ($SML) started gaining traction this week, surging on Friday. Looking at the ratio chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), we can see small-cap stocks are beginning to gain strength, but still have some work to do before outpacing the bigger stocks.

FIGURE 2. SMALL CAPS VS. LARGE CAP STOCKS. Small caps surged this week, but they still have more to go before catching up with their bigger cousins.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Small caps surged in July when inflation fears were in the rear-view mirror, but fell after concerns of a recession surfaced. Now that interest rate cuts are on the table, small-cap stocks may see more upside. A break above the upward-sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could give IWM a further boost.

What’s Happening With Precious Metals?

Gold prices hit an all-time high on Friday, riding on interest rate cut expectations. The daily chart of the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) below shows price breaking above a consolidation area, gapping up, and hitting an all-time high.

FIGURE 3. GOLD PRICES HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. After breaking out of a consolidation pattern, gold prices gapped up and surged.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes. Why the rise in gold in tandem with a rise in equities? Investors want to hedge their positions in case the Fed makes a surprise move.

Silver prices also moved higher, as seen in the chart of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). A break above the downward-sloping trendline and Friday’s large gap up are positive for silver traders. If silver prices continue to rise, the series of lower highs could be behind the white metal—for a while, anyway.

FIGURE 4. SILVER SURGES. SLV breaks above its downward-sloping trendline. Whether this upward move will continue rests on how much the Fed cuts rates in next week’s FOMC meeting.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The only known market-moving event next week is—you guessed it—the FOMC meeting. Expectations of a 50 bps cut are rising. How much will the Fed cut? We’ll know soon.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed up 4.02% for the week, at 5626.02, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.60% for the week at 41,393.78; Nasdaq Composite closed up 5.95% for the week at 17683.98
  • $VIX down 26.01% for the week, closing at 15.56
  • Best performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); Applovin Corp (APP); Cava Group (CAVA); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

On the Radar Next Week

  • August Retail Sales
  • August Housing Starts
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • August Existing Home Sales

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Stocks

Here’s My Most-Likely Scenario for QQQ

Stocks

While the S&P 500 finished the week once again testing new all-time highs around 5650, the Nasdaq 100 remains rangebound in a symmetrical triangle or “coil” pattern.  While this pattern does not necessarily suggest a potential next move for the QQQ, it did lead me to think about four different scenarios that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.

The chart of the QQQ looks a lot like the chart of Nvidia (NVDA), with a clear consolidation pattern of lower highs and higher lows. Other leading growth names like Meta Platforms (META) have failed to signal an upside breakout to give an “all clear” signal for the bulls. And defensive sectors continue to thrive, even though the S&P 500 finished in the green every day this week.

Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we conducted a similar exercise for the Nasdaq 100 back in June, and you won’t believe which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment on my channels and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if NVDA breaks out to the upside, META finally pops above $550, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 stocks go right back to a leadership role? That would certainly drive the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to their own new highs in the next month or so. If Powell’s press conference next week renews investor optimism and the market prices in a perfect soft landing for the economy, we could perhaps see this play out.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

If the Mag7 names continue to struggle and fail to breakout, but other sectors like financials and industrials surge higher, we could get a more mildly bullish rally here. That would mean the QQQ remains below its 2024 high, but stockpickers rejoice as plenty of opportunities appear outside of the growth sectors.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if the Fed meeting does not go as well next week, and investors start thinking recession again? Defensive sectors have certainly been showing strength in recent months, and it feels like it would not take much to reverse the signs of optimism I’ve observed over the last week. Bonds outperform stocks as investors get defensive, and suddenly we’re all hoping for an October rally to overcome the bearish sentiment.

Dave’s vote: 45%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

You always need a doomsday scenario, and this last option would involve a big time “risk off” move for stocks. Growth stocks rotate lower, and risk-off plays like gold shine brightest as the QQQ retests the August low around $425. Perhaps Powell fails to boost investors’ confidence and the “goldilocks scenario” for the economy seems like a distant memory.

Dave’s vote: 15%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Stocks

These Stocks are Just Beginning Their Move Higher!

Stocks

In this StockCharts TV video, Mary Ellen reviews the broader markets and highlights pockets of strength that are starting to trend higher. She also shares add-on plays to the move into home construction stocks, and shows key characteristics needed to confirm a downtrend reversal in select stocks.

This video originally premiered September 13, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen on StockCharts TV.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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Stocks

An Indicator to Reduce Whipsaws and Ride Trends

Stocks

Whipsaws and losing trades are part of the process for trend-following strategies. These are expenses, and simply unavoidable. Over time, trend-following strategies will catch a few big trends and these profits will more than cover the expenses. Let’s look at signals and backtest results for the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR).

The chart below shows the Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) with the Percent above MA indicator in the lower window. This indicator measures the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. I use +3% and -3% for signal thresholds to reduce whipsaws. A whipsaw (WS) is a short-lived signal that does not develop into a trend and results in loss. Thus, an uptrend signals with a cross above +3% and remains in force until a cross below -3%. On the chart below, the green lines show uptrend signals since 2020 and red lines show downtrend signals. The blue WS marks the whipsaws. Note that Percent above MA is one of 11 indicators in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin.

 

CIBR started trading in July 2015 and did not have a 200-day SMA until April 2016. The chart above shows four bullish trend signals (green lines) since 2020, but we can backtest to 2016 for a more complete picture. There were just 7 trend signals since April 2016 with four producing winning trades and three resulting in losses. This includes the current open trade, which started with the trend signal in May 2023. The average gain for the winners was 43% and the average loss for the losers was 6%. Winners generate gross revenues, while whipsaws and losing trades are expenses. Trading is profitable as long as the profits are bigger than the expenses. This simple trend-following strategy generated a Compound Annual Return of 10.5% since 2016. Not bad for just 7 trades.

Stocks were hit hard the first week of September and came roaring back this past week. In our comprehensive weekly report and video (here), we featured a bullish continuation pattern in SPY, a contracting range in QQQ and bullish charts for ETFs related to fintech, cybersecurity, housing medical devices and wind energy. We also provided detailed analysis for seven big tech stocks (MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, DELL, AVGO and NVDA). Click here to learn more and get two bonuses.

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Stocks

Can We Trust Last Week’s BIG Rally?

Stocks

That’s a great question, because we saw some very nice gains and we’re now approaching all-time highs, especially on the Dow Jones ($INDU) and S&P 500 ($SPX). The more growth-oriented NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) has much more work to do. How much more strength is required to generate those breakouts? Well, let’s go to the charts:

Dow Jones:

S&P 500:

NASDAQ 100:

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are clearly the better relative performers as they’re both within 1% of all-time highs that were recently recorded. The NASDAQ 100? Not so much. Not only is the NDX well off its all-time closing high, I can see a clear short-term downtrend line that needs to be broken before we can even consider a move to test all-time highs.

The RSIs on the Dow, SPX, and NDX are currently 60, 58, and 55, respectively. 60 tends to be resistance in short-term downtrends. So we’re at very key technical levels in terms of both price and technical indicators. But it’s not just these challenges that must be overcome. There are major seasonal hurdles directly in front of us as we get set to receive our first interest rate cut in what Fed Chief Powell said was a changing Fed policy (from hawkish to dovish).

The major seasonal challenges were discussed in my Weekly Market Recap on YouTube this weekend. Market “hurricane season” is active in the second half of September. To see just how bad the market has performed during this upcoming period, check out my latest video, “Major Challenge Ahead For S&P 500 In Late September.” Please help us build our YouTube community by hitting that “Like” button and “Subscribe” to our channel to get our latest YouTube videos timely.

Happy trading!

Tom

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Politics

Why House Republicans still can’t manage to fund the government

Politics

House Republicans have been in power for nearly two years — and they’re still unable to solve fiscal problems within their ranks.

The belligerent nature of the conference, coupled with a historically narrow majority, has made it almost impossible for any GOP leader to appease each corner of their constituency when nearly every Republican vote is necessary to pass bills along party lines.

Now House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is once again in the middle of the tensions that almost a year ago saw his predecessor ousted in part for refusing to fund the government the way a small group of far-right members demanded. But Johnson still worked through the weekend to rally support for his already-once-delayed proposal to avert an Oct. 1 government shutdown on terms friendly to the GOP, which he hopes to put to a vote this week.

“I believe we can fund the government responsibly, and I believe we can do right by the American people and ensure the security of our elections. I defy anybody to give me any logical argument why we shouldn’t do that. That’s why I’m so resolute about this,” Johnson told reporters last week.

Johnson’s measure would extend government funding into March — longer than Democrats and even some Republicans prefer — and tacks on provisions requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote that election officials say are unnecessary and Democrats say they can’t accept.

Many House Republicans consider the effort futile, since a solid block of GOP opponents remain unpersuaded to vote for any temporary funding extension and the Democratic-led Senate and White House have already rejected the plan. If all lawmakers are present and voting, Republicans can only lose four votes from their conference to pass a bill.

It all but sets up another fight between Republicans who want to prove to voters they can govern ahead of Election Day and others who would rather see Johnson fight aggressively for conservative policies — even if it means shutting the government down and risking their majority. The internal standoff could once again tarnish Republican efforts to send Johnson into bipartisan negotiations with the credibility to seek concessions ahead of the looming deadline.

“Let’s just be honest: Republican lack of unity has often sent us into negotiations with less leverage than we should have,” Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said. “That is a fact of being in a conference that values rugged individualism over collective action.”

In talks over the summer, Johnson and his leadership team sensed that a majority of Republicans would support extending current funding levels — known as a continuing resolution, or CR — until March 28, 2025, and attaching a voter ID bill that passed along mostly party lines in July.

But the proposal was quickly met with continued skepticism from Republicans’ pragmatic flank, and rage from some on the far right. A staunch block of hard-liners who have never supported a CR forced Johnson to delay a vote from Wednesday into this week. And many of those roughly dozen Republicans are not budging, as calls from across the conference for Johnson to “get serious” in negotiations grow louder.

Senior members of the Appropriations Committee, which drafts full-year spending bills, agree with Democrats’ preferred approach to extend current funding levels until December so lawmakers can pass new spending bills and clear the slate for the next president, whoever wins. The House has passed five of the 12 full-year spending bills, some with steep cuts; the Senate has passed none, but all 12 are also through the appropriations panel there.

Appropriators were willing to back Johnson’s measure for the sake of projected unity and to help him enter bicameral negotiations with leverage.

“The speaker tried to deliver,” Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said. “And he didn’t lose because of people on my committee and people who wanted a shorter CR. He lost because of a disparate group of people who said, ‘I don’t like the long CR, I want this, I want that.’ Come on.”

Johnson has remained adamant about twisting arms for his current plan, showing little willingness to renegotiate it. A year ago, then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) spent weeks gathering Republicans in conference rooms to cobble together short-term plans — once using a whiteboard — that were continuously rejected by members of the archconservative House Freedom Caucus, who wanted more spending cuts and border security. Eventually, he had to rely on House Democrats to pass a clean funding extension and avert a shutdown, a decision that contributed to his removal.

But that style of just-for-show politicking is considered old-school by a new crop of Republicans who demand all-or-nothing fights, particularly on reducing government spending. Republicans have seen leaders such as McCarthy, Paul D. Ryan (Wis.), and John A. Boehner (Ohio) before him, go through the motions of passing a GOP plan to appease the far right, only to return from negotiations in divided government with a bipartisan deal.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has voted against CRs, said Johnson’s current plan is a “fake fight” and GOP leaders “would cave at the end.” Republicans from across the ideological spectrum have peppered Johnson with questions about the “final” funding plan, which have largely gone unanswered, as House Democrats and the Senate are waiting to negotiate after the House passes something.

“If they were serious about what they intend to do, then pass the bill themselves. But they’ve been unable to do that on their own,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said at his weekly news conference. “We are simply asking traditional Republicans to partner with House Democrats in a bipartisan way.”

Even Senate Republicans are growing antsy. Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), who sits on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said the lower chamber had until the beginning of this week to show signs of progress or the Senate would need to craft its own bill — probably without any of the conservative policies that House Republicans demand.

“I think the speaker is doing a very, very good job. You’re just in a situation where you’ve got virtually no majority and you’re struggling with people who are just not going to vote for a spending bill in the House,” he said.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who led a failed motion to oust Johnson as speaker earlier this year, said that Johnson should just start negotiating with Democrats rather than twist GOP arms — including hers — to support his plan.

Republicans who oppose short-term spending extensions say such moves only add to the deficit, which the party has promised to reduce. Johnson often notes that governing on spending and other conservative priorities could become easier if Republicans control Congress and the White House again, but many of his far-right colleagues are tired of waiting.

Unified GOP control is no guarantee of spending cuts, either: The debt grew from 102 percent of the United States’ total economic output to 104 percent during the two-year span when Republicans last controlled both chambers of Congress and Donald Trump was president, according to the Office of Management and Budget. And the discretionary spending that Congress considers as part of the appropriations process is a fraction of annual government spending, which is dominated by programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Some far-right Republicans could support Johnson’s plan if they knew he would be willing to shut down the government when the Senate rejects the bill. But both McCarthy and Johnson have broken with past Republican speakers by choosing to avert shutdowns, arguing that they did little to extract concessions from Democrats and earned Republicans the blame.

But hard-liners believe that Johnson’s reliance on Democrats for must-pass bills has already hurt his negotiating position.

“When your enemy knows what you’re willing to do and not do, it makes it very difficult to negotiate. So because Schumer knows [leaders are] not willing to shut down the government, they’re going to, just like they have for the last two years, jam us,” Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) said.

Pragmatic Republicans are growing frustrated at Johnson for still trying to keep the far-right coalition together for his current plan. But others are giving the speaker credit for trying to find consensus even if it is meant to send a message to the Senate.

“We’re in the majority and you have to at least engage with your colleagues,” said Rep. Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.), who represents a swing district that President Joe Biden won in 2020. “Yes, there’s going to be people that don’t vote for the final product, and if they’re unwilling to pass an initial offering toward a negotiation, then you move on without them.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

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