As we head into the second half of 2025, here are three stocks that present strong technical setups with favorable risk/reward profiles. One is the largest market cap stock we’re familiar with, which bodes well for the market in general. The second is an old tech giant that’s making a comeback. The third is a beaten-down S&P 500 name that may be ready to rally.

Let’s dive into these three stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is Leading the Market

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have finally broken out and closed above $150, a level we’ve been closely watching. With price action above that resistance threshold, NVDA’s stock price has room to run.

DeepSeek and tariff concerns seem to be in the rearview mirror. The fundamental positives are continued earnings growth, continued large tech cap-ex spend, and, more recently, Jensen Huang’s unveiling of a cute robot he feels could be the next big thing.

Technically, this move has legs, and we have the patterns and history to show for it. The risk/reward set-up is now quite favorable. Let’s break it down.

Over the last five years, there have been periods of consolidation (green boxes) and then significant breakouts to the upside. In all cases, shares became overbought according to the relative strength index (RSI). But overbought doesn’t mean NVDA’s stock price will reverse. During uptrends, overbought conditions can last for quite some time, as they did after the prior two significant breakouts.

With the official breakout above $150 and RSI again reading over 70, history suggests an extended rally is in the cards. A gain of 25–30% from current levels and a run to $200 is likely.

The downside risk is to the $150 level, from which shares just broke out. If this move is just a head fake, then use that level as a stop to limit your losses. This risk/reward set-up is why we believe this is one to own for the back half of 2025.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finds New Life

Old-timers like me may remember what a high flyer Cisco Systems (CSCO) once was. It’s been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) since June 2009, and shares have struggled to sustain any upward momentum until lately.

Fundamentally, the company continued to grow through acquisition. Now, those deals are starting to help their bottom line, namely the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk that closed in 2024. 

Technically — and that’s what we care about on the StockCharts platform — we can have some fun.

Below is a 30-year chart going back to the dot-com boom. Cisco was one of Wall Street’s darlings and climbed astronomically before falling from the skies. It has struggled to revisit those levels, but that could change soon. 

Switching to a smaller time frame — a three-year weekly chart (see below) — we are seeing great set-ups as we head into the back half of 2025.

CSCO’s stock price consolidated between $43 and $55 for 15 months and broke out in late 2024. Shares rallied and then pulled back to old resistance (now support) at $55 and began their climb back.

Now shares are breaking out again. An upside target of $82, the all-time high set back during the dot-com era, is within reach and may just get there by year-end. The risk/reward seems favorable and, given the run in tech and cyber stocks which CSCO represents, the momentum is there to reach those highs.

Generac’s Power Play

Welcome to hurricane season! It lasts from June 1st to November 30. Generac (GNRC), a leader in home backup power, tends to perform well during weather extremes. It isn’t always the primary catalyst for rallies over the long term in the stock, but it can spur short-term rallies.

Last week, as much of the country was in the middle of a heat wave, GNRC had the best week of gains since November 2024, rallying nearly 12%. The trend change seems to be underway. Shares are lower by -8.1% year-to-date, and there’s room to run.

However, the charts are showing signs of life. Let’s keep this one as simple as possible.

The stock broke its longer-term downtrend (red line)

Shares have made a consistent set of higher lows (green uptrend)

Shares recaptured their 50-day moving average

Shares consolidated in an ascending triangle and broke out

Shares tested and failed to recapture their 200-day moving average

Progress is being made. The trend has changed, there’s something to reverse, and seasonal factors and reduced tariff concerns are a true tailwind.

Shares could easily pull back — a flag, if you will — to the $135 area, but should be a great entry point from a risk/reward perspective. Overall, shares are poised to continue reversing that longer-term downtrend, and could be a good addition to the portfolio for the end of 2025.

The Bottom Line

Each of these stocks offers a viable investment strategy with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. If you’re going to enter a position, use clearly-defined stop levels to manage your risks.

After six weeks of consolidation and trading in a defined range, the markets finally broke out from this formation and ended the week with gains. Over the past five sessions, the markets have largely traded with a positive undercurrent, continuing to edge higher. The trading range was wider than anticipated; the Nifty traded in an 829-point range over the past few days. Volatility took a backseat; the India Vix slumped by 9.40% to 12.39 on a weekly basis. While trending higher throughout the week, the headline index closed with a net weekly gain of 525.40 points (2.09%).

The breakout that occurred in the previous week has pushed the support level higher for the Index. Now, the most immediate support level has been dragged higher to the 25100-25150 zone, the one that the markets penetrated to move higher. So long as the Nifty keeps its head above this zone, it is likely to continue moving higher. Over the coming weeks, we are also likely to see a distinct shift in the leadership, with the sectors that were in the bottoming-out process taking the lead. This would also mean that one must now focus on taking profits in the spaces that have run up much harder over the past week. While protecting gains, it would be wise to shift focus to the sectors that are likely to see much improved relative strength going forward from here.

The levels of 25750 and 26000 are likely to act as potential resistance levels for the coming week. The supports come in at the 25,300 and 25,000 levels. The trading range is likely to stay wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 64.58; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line. A large white candle emerged, indicating the directional strength that the markets exhibited throughout the week.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty initially crossed above the rising trendline pattern resistance. This trendline began from the low of 21150 and joined the subsequent rising bottoms. However, the Nifty consolidated above the breakout point for six weeks before finally resuming its move higher. The Index has pushed its resistance levels higher; as long as the Index stays above the 25000 level, this breakout will remain valid.

It is also important to note that the Nifty’s Relative Strength (RS) line is attempting to reverse its trajectory. This may lead to the frontline index improving its relative performance against the broader markets. Along with this shift in relative strength, it is also strongly recommended that one consider protecting gains in sectors that have risen significantly over the past several weeks. The leadership over the coming weeks is likely to change, making rotating sectors even more important than before. While protecting gains, new purchases must be initiated in sectors that are showing improvement in momentum and relative strength. While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, a positive outlook is suggested for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that only two sector Indices, Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty PSU Bank Index, are inside the leading quadrant. While the Midcap Index continues to rotate strongly, the PSU Bank Index is seen giving up on its relative momentum. These two groups are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty PSE Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant. This may result in the sector slowing down on its relative performance. The Nifty Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Banknifty, and the Services Sector Index are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Consumption Index has rolled into the lagging quadrant. The FMCG Index and the Pharma Index also continue to languish inside this quadrant. The Nifty Metal Index is also located within the lagging quadrant; however, it is sharply improving its relative momentum compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty, Media, IT, Auto, and Energy Indices are located within the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to assume leadership over the coming weeks as they continue to improve their relative momentum and strength compared to the broader Nifty 500 Index.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

A Greek Odyssey

First of all, I apologize for any potential delays or inconsistencies this week. I’m currently writing this from a hotel room in Greece, surrounded by what I can only describe as the usual Greek chaos. Our flight back home was first delayed, then canceled, then rescheduled and delayed again. So instead of being back at my desk as planned, I’m getting back into the trenches from a small Greek town. But the markets wait for no one, so here we are!

Market Sector Shifts: Tech Takes the Lead

The changes in our top five aren’t massive, but they’re certainly worth noting. Technology has muscled its way back to the #1 spot, nudging Industrials down to second. Communication Services and Utilities are holding steady at positions #3 and #4 respectively. The most interesting move, imho, is Financials re-entering the top five at #5, up from #7 last week.

Real estate remains just outside at #6, while Consumer Staples has dropped out of the top five, landing at #7. Materials and Energy are still bringing up the rear at #8 and #9. In a bit of musical chairs, Consumer Discretionary and Health Care have swapped places — Discretionary now at #10 and Health Care down to #11.

1. (2) Technology – (XLK)*
2. (1) Industrials – (XLI)*
3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
4. (4) Utilities – (XLU)
5. (7) Financials – (XLF)*
6. (6) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
7. (5) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
9. (9) Energy – (XLE)
10. (11) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
11. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)*

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a clear picture of Technology’s strength as it powers further into the leading quadrant. Industrials is still in the lead, but has started to lose some relative momentum — though it’s maintaining the highest RS-ratio reading. Communication Services is showing a clear upward rotation, while Financials and Utilities are inside the weakening quadrant with negative headings (but still above the 100 level, keeping them in the top five).

Daily RRG

• Technology and Communication Services flexing their muscles in the leading quadrant
• Industrials inside lagging, but turning back up
• Financials in improving on a positive heading
• Utilities rotating back down at a negative heading, close to crossing into lagging

The sector at risk here is clearly Utilities — at least for now.

Technology

The Technology sector chart is showing a very clear breakout above the resistance area around 240. It’s a decisive move, and that old resistance should now act as support. This breakout is mirrored in the relative strength line, which has continued its upward trajectory after breaking out of the falling channel.

Industrials

Industrials are also flexing their muscles, clearing overhead resistance with a nice breakout. The relative strength line, already out of its consolidation pattern, appears to be gaining momentum again. This is starting to drag the RS ratio line higher.

Communication Services

Communication Services is showing a clear upward break over the 105 resistance area. Just like Tech and Industrials, that old resistance is now expected to act as support. The price strength is finally reflected in the relative strength line, which has started to move up against the rising support line. This is causing the RS momentum line to pull up, almost crossing back over the 100 level, which should, in turn, push Communication Services back into the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG.

Utilities

Utilities, one of the defensive sectors in this cyclical power play, has remained static within its range. But in this market, standing still means losing relative strength. The utility sector is becoming increasingly at risk, with its relative strength chart returning to the trading range and heading towards the lower boundary. This is dragging the RRG lines lower.

Financials

Financials, our new entrant in the top five, is still grappling with the old rising support line and overhead resistance level. However, last week’s price action seems to have broken the sector out of a small consolidation pattern. If Financials can now take out the overhead resistance just above 52, it’ll be a powerful sign for this sector.

Portfolio Performance

From a portfolio performance perspective, we’re getting hurt by the strength of the Technology sector. It’s in the portfolio, but not enough to keep up with the S&P 500’s performance. We’re still underperforming by around 8%.

To turn this situation around, we need sustained moves higher by Technology, Communication Services, and potentially Financials. If Consumer Discretionary could join the party at some stage, that would be ideal — but it’s still far off at #10. For now, we’ll have to work with what we’ve got, especially from Tech and Communication Services, with potential boosts from Financials and Industrials. Utilities are likely to be a drag while they remain in the top five, given the current bullish market sentiment.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights key pullback opportunities and reversal setups in the wake of a strong market week, one which saw all-time highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. She breaks down the semiconductor surge and explores the bullish momentum in economically-sensitive sectors, including software, regional banks, and small-caps. Watch as she highlights top stocks to add to your watchlist, including FedEx, XPO, CHRW, and RL, plus identifies downtrend reversal candidates like AeroVironment (AVAV) and Nike, supported by volume and technical breakouts. In addition, she covers smart entry tactics, examining historical precedent with Coinbase.

This video originally premiered on June 27, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Below is the EB Weekly Market Report that I sent out earlier to our EarningsBeats.com members. This will give you an idea of the depth of our weekly report, which is a very small piece of our regular service offerings. We called both the stock market top in February and stock market bottom in April, and encouraged EB members to lower risk at the time of the former and increase risk at the time of the latter.

There is no better time to experience our service for yourself as we’re currently running a FLASH SALE that offers a 20% discount on annual memberships. The timing to join couldn’t be better as I’ll be providing my Q3 outlook to all EB annual members at 5:30pm ET today. A recording will be provided for those who cannot attend the session live. So if you sign up later today or tomorrow or the next day, we’ll make sure you get a time-stamped copy of the recording.

In the meantime, enjoy this complimentary copy of this week’s report….

ChartLists/Spreadsheets Updated

The following ChartLists/Spreadsheets were updated over the weekend:

• Strong Earnings (SECL)
• Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
• Strong AD (SADCL)
• Raised Guidance (RGCL)
• Bullish Trifecta (BTCL)
• Short Squeeze (SSCL)
• Leading Stocks (LSCL)
• Manipulation Spreadsheet*

*We continued to add more stocks to our Manipulation Spreadsheet and you’ll see that a few have tabs, but do not have data yet. Those 3 are still “under construction”. I also added a “Summary” tab where I’ve begun to sort the individual stocks in order based on a proprietary relative AD ranking system. Don’t ask me what it means yet, because it’s still very much a work in progress as well. I’m looking at the intraday relative performance of individual stocks vs. the benchmark S&P 500. So positive percentages represent better intraday AD performance than the S&P 500, while negative percentages represent the opposite. One thing I’ll be watching is to see if stronger relative AD lines precede relative strength in stocks on a forward-looking basis. It certainly did in the case of both Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) from several weeks ago when I pointed out what appeared to me to be significant accumulation in March/April when the stock market bottomed. Both NFLX and MSFT have soared since that time. I’ll keep everyone posted on the progress of my research over the next many weeks and months.

Weekly Market Recap

Major Indices

Sectors

Top 10 Industries Last Week

Bottom 10 Industries Last Week

Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100

Big Picture

If you’re a long-term investor, stepping back and looking at the stock market using this 100-year chart enables you to avoid pulling unnecessary sell triggers, because of the media, permabears, negative nellie’s, and all the “news” out there. The above chart never once flashed anything remotely signaling a sell signal and now, here we are, back at all-time highs. Simply put, it filters out all the noise that we hear on a day-to-day basis and keeps our wits about us.

Sustainability Ratios

Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):

QQQ:SPY

Absolute price action on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has now seen all-time high breakouts, which alone is quite bullish. We want to see aggressive vs. defensive (or growth vs. value) ratios moving higher to indicate sustainability of any S&P 500 advance. In my view, we’re seeing that. But the intraday QQQ:SPY ratio continues to hesitate. A breakout in this intraday relative ratio would most definitely add to the current bullish market environment.

IWM:QQQ

I’m seeing signs of an impending rate cut by the Fed. However, if I’m being completely honest, one signal that we should see is outperformance in small caps and a rising IWM:QQQ ratio. That hasn’t happened – at least not yet. If a rate cut starts to become clearer, I would absolutely expect to see much more relative strength in small caps. Keep an eye out for that.

XLY:XLP

I pay very close attention to the XLY:XLP ratio and, more specifically, this INTRADAY XLY:XLP ratio. This chart helped me feel confident in calling a market top back in January/February. If you recall, that’s when we said it was waaaaay too risky to be long the U.S. stock market. By the time we had bottomed in April, the blue-shaded area highlighted the fact that the XLY vs. XLP ratio had already begun to SOAR! That’s why, on Friday, April 11th, I said I was ALL IN on the long side again.

These signals are golden and, when used in conjunction with all of our other signals, can provide us extremely helpful clues about stock market direction. If these ratios begin to turn lower in a big way, then yes we’ll need to grow more cautious. However, right now, they couldn’t be any more bullish. Expect higher prices ahead.

Sentiment

5-day SMA ($CPCE)

Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.

The S&P 500 had struggled a bit once 5-day SMA readings of the CPCE fell to the .55 area, a sign of market complacency and a possible short-term top. We saw a bit of a pullback in June, which many times is all we get during a secular bull market advance. My sustainability ratios are supporting a higher move by stocks and I know from history that overbought conditions can remain overbought. I also know that sentiment does a much better job of calling bottoms than it does calling tops. That’s why I will not overreact every time this 5-day moving average of the CPCE falls back below .55. During Q4 2024, we saw plenty of 5-day SMA readings below .55 and, while the S&P 500 was choppy, bullishness prevailed throughout. So just please always keep in mind that these 5-day SMA readings are our “speed boat” sentiment indicator that changes quite frequently. When it lines up with other bearish or topping signals, we should take note. But reacting to every subtle move in this chart is a big mistake, in my opinion.

253-day SMA ($CPCE)

This longer-term 253-day SMA of the CPCE is our “ocean-liner” signal, unlike our speedboat indicator. This one usually provides us a very solid long-term signal as the overall market environment moves from one of pessimism to complacency and vice versa. Look at the above chart. When the 253-day SMA is moving lower like it is now, it accompanies our most bullish S&P 500 moves. It makes perfect common sense as well. Once this 253-day SMA moves to extremely high levels and begins to roll over, the bears have already sold. We typically have nowhere to go on our major indices, except higher once sentiment becomes so bearish. The opposite holds true when the 253-day SMA reaches extreme complacency and starts to turn higher. We saw that to start 2022, which, at the time, I stated was my biggest concern as we started 2022. If you recall, I said to look for a 20-25% cyclical bear market over a 3-6 month period on the first Saturday in January 2022. The above chart was my biggest reason for calling for such a big selloff ahead of the decline.

These charts matter.

Long-Term Trade Setup

Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how these stocks looked one week ago:

• JPM – challenging all-time high
• BA – substantial improvement, would like to see 185-190 support hold
• FFIV – very bullish action above its 20-month SMA
• MA – very steady and bullish long-term performer
• GS – trending higher above 20-month EMA
• FDX – trying to clear falling 20-week EMA
• AAPL – monthly RSI at 50, which has been an excellent time to buy AAPL over the past two decades
• CHRW – 85-90 is solid longer-term support
• JBHT – would like to see 120-125 support hold
• STX – long-term breakout in play, excellent trade
• HSY – breaking above 175 would be intermediate-term bullish
• DIS – now testing key price resistance in 120-125 range
• MSCI – monthly RSI hanging near 50, solid entry
• SBUX – moved back above 50-week EMA, short-term bullish
• KRE – long-term uptrend remains in play
• ED – has been a solid income-producer and investment since the financial crisis low in 2009
• AJG – few stocks have been steadier to the upside over the past decade
• NSC – continues to sideways consolidate in very bullish fashion
• RHI – trending down with potential sight set on 30
• ADM – looks to be reversing higher off long-term price support near 43
• BG – 65-70 price support held, now looking to clear 50-week SMA to the upside
• CVS – excellent support at 45 or just below, just failed on bounce at 50-month SMA at 72
• IPG – monthly RSI now at 37 and also testing 4-year price support near 22.50
• HRL – long-term price support at 25 and stock now showing positive divergence on monthly chart – bullish
• DE – one of the better 2025 momentum stocks on this list

Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.

Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.

Looking Ahead

Upcoming Earnings

Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: STZ ($29 billion)
• Wednesday: None
• Thursday: None
• Friday: None

Key Economic Reports

• Monday: June Chicago PMI
• Tuesday: June PMI manufacturing, June ISM manufacturing, May construction spending, May JOLTS
• Wednesday: June ADP employment report
• Thursday: Initial jobless claims, June nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate & average hourly earnings, May factory orders, June ISM services
• Friday: None – stock market closed in observance of Independence Day

Historical Data

I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.

Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:

S&P 500 (since 1950)

• Jun 30: +34.34%
• Jul 1: +72.77%
• Jul 2: +16.76%
• Jul 3: +77.19%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: +39.40%
• Jul 6: +22.32%
• Jul 7: +17.62%
• Jul 8: -16.29%
• Jul 9: +76.54%
• Jul 10: -16.59%
• Jul 11: +13.23%
• Jul 12: +36.89%
• Jul 13: -5.67%

NASDAQ (since 1971)

• Jun 30: +73.30%
• Jul 1: +63.18%
• Jul 2: -47.43%
• Jul 3: +46.02%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: +7.04%
• Jul 6: -10.79%
• Jul 7: +60.19%
• Jul 8: -10.10%
• Jul 9: +86.44%
• Jul 10: -27.94%
• Jul 11: +11.18%
• Jul 12: +128.28%
• Jul 13: +61.52%

Russell 2000 (since 1987)

• Jun 30: +99.14%
• Jul 1: +30.53%
• Jul 2: -113.05%
• Jul 3: +44.57%
• Jul 4: +0.00% (market closed – holiday)
• Jul 5: -4.89%
• Jul 6: -76.61%
• Jul 7: +43.95%
• Jul 8: +37.24%
• Jul 9: +31.88%
• Jul 10: -17.39%
• Jul 11: +29.75%
• Jul 12: +89.15%
• Jul 13: +63.13%

The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.

Final Thoughts

All-time highs are always a time for me to say “I told you so” to the bears, since I’ve been a firm believer that we remain in a secular bull market advance – one in which we should EXPECT to see higher prices and all-time highs. This latest rally is being fully supported by risk-on areas of the market, which will almost certainly lead for more and more all-time highs down the road.

Here are several things I’m watching this week:

• Jobs. The ADP employment report will be out on Wednesday and the more-closely-watched nonfarm payrolls will be released on Thursday this week since the stock market is closed on Friday. ANY sign of weakness in these reports will begin to put mounting pressure on the Fed to cut rates in late July at their next meeting.
• Technical Price Action. Any time we’re setting new all-time highs, I start off with a bullish mindset. I only turn bearish if I’m inundated with warning signals. Currently, I see few of those.
• History. We can now turn our attention to upcoming earnings season and, historically, that’s a bullish thing. Pre-earnings season runs to the upside are common and, if you scroll up and check out historical returns for days over the next couple weeks, you’ll see that July normally performs well – especially the first half of the month.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX). The 10-year treasury yield has been in decline for 3 straight weeks, falling from 4.52% on June 9th to 4.24% just a few minutes ago. The money rotating into bonds is a very strong signal that inflation is NOT a problem. It’s also a signal that the Fed “should be” considering a rate cut at its next meeting.
• Breakouts. We’ve seen big breakouts in key areas like semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), and investment services ($DJUSSB), but there will be plenty more. Travel & tourism ($DJUSTT) joined the party on Thursday. Banks ($DJUSBK) are on the verge of a breakout. The way I look at it? The more the merrier!

Happy trading!

Tom