Biopharma M&A activity picks up

In a Q3 report on M&A activity, Oppenheimer notes that biopharma market sentiment showed an upward trajectory during the quarter, with expectations that deal flow will continue to increase through the end of 2025.

William Blair, a global investment banking and asset management firm specializing in biopharma investments, also notes an uptick in momentum in a recap of Q2 activity in the biopharma space, citing positive clinical data, a wave of public M&A activity and more clarity on tariffs and drug pricing as catalysts.

Total M&A transaction value reached US$38 billion for the quarter, according to data analyzed by Oppenheimer, including US$20 billion in September alone. Clinical-stage acquisitions saw their strongest quarter since late 2023, driven by early stage assets in the oncology, immunology and cardiovascular-metabolic areas.

The central nervous system space saw a pause in deals for the first time since the beginning of 2024, reflecting shifting investment priorities. Small molecules and antibodies maintained their leading positions as prevalent treatment modalities in deals, while emergents like bispecific antibodies, multi-specific antibody-drug conjugates and CAR-T therapies gained traction. However, the overall M&A market for antibody-drug conjugates remained cautious, with the exception of Seribant Therapeutics’ acquisition of Y-mAbs Therapeutics for US$412 million.

Public company takeouts continued to outnumber private company acquisitions for the second consecutive quarter; however, private companies still attracted strong interest from investors after a sluggish first half of 2025.

Oppenheimer’s Private Placement Activity report notes that a significant increase was observed in September, with companies with a clinical pipeline and a platform commanding the highest valuations.

Strategic partnerships between established pharmaceutical leaders and innovative biotech firms continued to underscore the ongoing efforts by pharma leaders to build and diversify their pipelines.

Roche Holding (OTCQX:RHHBY,SWX:ROG) and Zealand Pharma (OTC Pink:ZLDPY,CPH:ZEAL) entered into an agreement to co-develop and co-commercialize weight-loss drug candidate petrelintide in a deal valued at up to US$5.3 billion, reflecting ongoing interest in weight-management therapies, despite market challenges and competitive pressure.

Meanwhile, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) agreed to co-develop and co-commercialize a novel cancer immunotherapy targeting multiple tumor types in a deal worth up to US$11 billion, and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) partnered with 3SBio (OTC Pink:TRSBF,HKEX:1530) to advance a new cancer drug candidate.

Both agreements highlight ongoing efforts to expand oncology treatment options.

Cell and gene therapies continued to draw investor attention, and the central nervous system space saw an increase in average deal size. William Blair notes that cell and gene therapies remain a priority area for venture capital investors, as well as public market investors, despite regulatory complexities.

Initial public offering (IPO) activity rebounded meaningfully in Q3 after a quieter first half of 2025, with LB Pharmaceuticals’ (NASDAQ:LBRX) September offering serving as a marker of renewed capital markets appetite.

Secondary public offerings and clinical-stage private financings also increased, fueled by promising clinical data and expanding investor participation, including from international markets such as China.

In parallel, funding for AI-driven drug discovery platforms continued to capture investor interest, with rounds for companies like Isomorphic Labs, Pathos and Lila Sciences.

Regulatory and policy developments

US President Donald Trump’s second term has brought a shift to more business-friendly stances, impacting healthcare M&A and trade. The Federal Trade Commission has signaled intentions to ease antitrust scrutiny, potentially speeding up big pharma and biotech dealmaking and encouraging higher transaction volumes that consolidate the sector.

A central policy focus is the onshoring of biopharmaceutical manufacturing, with the administration actively pursuing tariff negotiations to reduce import costs and bolster supply chain resilience. The landmark deal between the government and Pfizer to lower drug prices in Medicaid in exchange for tariff relief exemplifies this dual approach.

These tariff adjustments are designed to ease the burden on drug importation costs, incentivizing companies to invest more domestically while managing global supply chain risks. Lara Castleton, US head of portfolio construction and strategy at Janus Henderson Investors, has identified this agreement as “the catalyst for healthcare.” She further suggests that the sector is likely overdue for a comeback, having lagged behind the tech market earlier in the year.

Trump has emphasized the expectation that other pharma companies will follow suit, intensifying onshoring efforts. As of September 30, large pharma had committed roughly US$368 billion to US-based manufacturing facilities.

Additionally, the FDA approved 45 new drug applications in Q3, marking a notable increase from previous quarters. This surge was driven by accelerated approvals, largely in the gene and cell therapy sectors, as well as innovative biologics targeting rare diseases and oncology.

Biotech and pharma market forecast for 2025

The biotech and pharma sectors entered Q4 on firm footing. Supportive market dynamics are expected to persist as the year continues, with 2025 on track to reach US$93 billion in total transaction value.

Several catalysts are poised to shape the healthcare landscape moving forward.

An anticipated IPO from MapLight Therapeutics, focusing on neurology therapies, will reveal investor appetite for specialty pharma assets in a market that had a bullish close to Q3, but faces questions about sustaining momentum.

On the regulatory front, FDA decisions are expected for a handful of treatments in gene and cell therapy, as well as oncology. Approvals are expected to accelerate, bolstered by programs aimed at speeding up evaluations of novel treatments like CRISPR-based medicines, stem cell research and nutraceuticals.

Leadership changes may also foster innovation in unconventional medical fields such as stem cell research and nutraceuticals. Amid an evolving regulatory and political landscape, Reed Jobs has advocated for sustained public funding to fuel biomedical progress, delivering a key congressional address on National Institutes of Health protection in September. Beyond advocacy, he is also building a nearly US$1 billion biotech fund focused on next-generation cancer therapies, highlighting the vital intersection of public research funding and private sector innovation.

Policy clarity around drug pricing reforms and Medicaid tariff relief will critically influence commercial access and pricing dynamics. The GLP-1 sector remains under the spotlight following the announcement of Trump’s plans to reduce the monthly cost of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy to US$150.

AI’s expanding role in drug discovery, clinical trial design and digital therapeutics will continue to inspire industry innovation, likely attracting significant funding and fostering new collaborations.

However, volatility related to regulatory appointments, trade uncertainties and notably the ongoing US federal government shutdown presents near-term challenges. Investors and industry participants will closely monitor clinical data and regulatory shifts to navigate the evolving landscape successfully.

Bitcoin and Ether price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$110,645, a 0.3 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$109,873, and its highest was US$111,266.

Bitcoin price performance, October 24, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin’s medium-sized investors are continuing to buy even after the US$19 billion liquidation event earlier this month, preserving the market’s long-term bullish structure, according to CryptoQuant.

Entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have added roughly 907,000 BTC over the past year, which analysts say represents a strong accumulation trend that historically aligns with upward price momentum.

Recent price action reflects this institutional backing, with Bitcoin reclaiming levels above US$110,000 amid softer inflation data and improved market sentiment. However, CryptoQuant warned that short-term demand is softening as the cohort’s 30-day balance has fallen below its moving average, suggesting potential near-term caution until a catalyst, such as renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, emerges.

Ether (ETH) was priced at US$3,928.56, a 1.8 percent increase in 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$3,872.67, and its highest was US$3,968.61.

Altcoin price update

• Solana (SOL) was priced at US$193.09, at its highest valuation of the day, up by 0.9 percent over the last 24 hours. Its lowest valuation of the day was US$189.23.

• XRP was trading for US$2.51, an increase of 4.2 percent over the last 24 hours and its highest valuation of the day. Its lowest was US$2.46.

Crypto derivatives and market indicators

The cryptocurrency market has experienced some fluctuations with a mixed but generally cautious outlook. The crypto derivatives market has shown some signs of recovery and increased activity after the earlier October volatility.

Liquidations for contracts tracking Bitcoin have totaled approximately US$5.89 million in the last four hours, the majority of which have been short positions, indicating a possible short squeeze or short-covering rally.

This aligns with Bitcoin’s price rebound and trader repositioning after recent dips.

Ether liquidations showed a different pattern; its US$7.01 million liquidations were fairly evenly split between long and short positions, suggesting balanced market dynamics and some ongoing indecision or consolidation.

Futures open interest for Bitcoin was up by 0.4 percent to US$71.27 billion over four hours, indicating growing trader interest and increasing liquidity, with a slight decrease in the final hour of trading. Ether futures open interest moved by +0.86 percent to US$45.94 billion, also showing a modest pullback as markets closed.

The funding rate remains positive, with both Bitcoin and Ether showing it at 0.005, a sign of modest bullish sentiment but not extreme leverage. Bitcoin’s relative strength index stood at 55.4, in a neutral to slightly bullish momentum phase, further supporting a stable recovery rather than a parabolic move.

Fear and Greed Index snapshot

CMC’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly trended upwards into 32, but remains in fear territory, an improvement from this week’s lowest score (25).

CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, Bitcoin price and Bitcoin volume.

Chart via CoinMarketCap

Today’s crypto news to know

Trump pardons Binance founder

US President Donald Trump has granted a full pardon to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, wiping away his 2024 conviction for violating US anti-money laundering laws. Zhao, better known as “CZ,” served four months in prison and had been barred from running financial ventures under the plea deal.

The move follows months of lobbying by Binance, which paid a record US$4.3 billion fine as part of its own settlement with federal prosecutors. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the case “a politically motivated overreach by the Biden administration,” insisting the pardon was meant to correct an injustice.

Critics argue the decision reflects Trump’s growing financial ties to the crypto industry, citing his personal investments and recent push for a “national cryptocurrency reserve.” Zhao thanked Trump on social media, saying he is “deeply grateful” for the decision and eager to “continue supporting innovation responsibly.”

Bitfarms surges on Jane Street investment

Crypto miner Bitfarms (TSX:BITF) saw its shares surge on Friday after trading firm Jane Street said it has acquired a 5.4 percent ownership stake in the company, as well as a 5 percent stake in Cipher Mining (NASDAQ:CIFR).

This move from a major institutional market maker, known for its strategic investments in the digital asset space, highlights the growing institutional involvement in cryptocurrency mining businesses and their expanding role within the tech sector’s market rally.

Polymarket confirms POLY token launch

Prediction platform Polymarket has confirmed plans to launch its long-awaited POLY token following a US$2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

Speaking on the Degenz Live podcast, Chief Marketing Officer Matthew Modabber said both the token and airdrop are “officially in motion,” confirming rumors that have swirled for months.

Modabber emphasized that the launch will prioritize real utility and “long-term viability,” aligning with Polymarket’s push to relaunch its US app after receiving fresh regulatory clearance.

Sygnum Bank, Debifi partner for multiSYG Bitcoin lending product

Sygnum Bank has partnered with Debifi, a Bitcoin-backed lending platform, to introduce MultiSYG, a new multisignature Bitcoin lending product slated for launch in the first half of 2026.

MultiSYG allows clients to borrow fiat currencies against their Bitcoin holdings. These Bitcoin assets are held in a 3-of-5 multisig escrow wallet, with keys distributed to the borrower, Sygnum and independent signers. This structure ensures borrowers maintain partial control and on-chain cryptographic proof of their collateral for the loan term.

The product is designed to enhance transparency and security in lending by preventing rehypothecation and eliminating the need for blind trust in custodians, which are common issues in traditional lending practices. MultiSYG is specifically tailored for institutional and high-net-worth clients seeking bank-grade terms and flexible loan services.

JPMorgan to let institutions borrow against Bitcoin, Ether holdings

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is preparing to let its institutional clients borrow cash using Bitcoin and Ether as collateral. Set to launch by the end of 2025, the initiative will allow the firm’s clients to pledge cryptocurrencies directly rather than through ETFs, using a third-party custodian to safeguard tokens.

The pilot follows successful internal testing involving BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT) earlier this year. JPMorgan already accepts crypto-linked ETFs as loan collateral.

Crypto.com applies for national trust bank charter

Crypto.com has applied to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a National Trust Bank Charter.

This federal charter would enable Crypto.com to provide regulated crypto financial services across the US, including custody and staking. The company plans to focus on institutional clients, offering solutions such as digital asset treasuries, ETFs and corporate custody. This move signifies Crypto.com’s progression towards compliance with traditional financial regulations and the expansion of its regulated presence in the US.

Cobalt price, October 25, 2024, to October 23, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

Much of the cobalt story this year has been dominated by the February export suspension out of the DRC, which supplies roughly three-quarters of the world’s cobalt. The initial curtailment was expected to last four months in an effort to rein in oversupply and stem a price plunge below US$10 per pound, the lowest point in over 20 years.

The supply glut has been attributed to a surge in output driven largely by China’s CMOC Group (OTC Pink:CMCLF, SHA:603993), which has rapidly expanded production at two major DRC mines.

Cobalt supply expected to swing from surplus to balance

Cobalt supply has surged over the past five years, with global mine production more than doubling from 140,000 metric tons in 2020 to 290,000 metric tons in 2024. The bulk of this growth has come out of DRC, with annual output rising from 175,000 metric tons in 2023 to 220,000 metric tons in 2024. This rapid growth has far outpaced demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and other end-use industries, resulting in significant market oversupply.

In June, the DRC extended its export halt through September, a move that supported higher price levels.

“Trade statistics for cobalt hydroxide imports into China in June showed the first drop in material following the export ban enforcement in late February,” wrote Fastmarkets’ Rob Searle in a June market update.

“With a typical lead time of around three months, we expected June to be the first month of lower volumes. Cobalt hydroxide imports fell 62 percent in June and are expected to remain at low levels through to the end of December or early 2026. Should the export ban end as planned on September 22, the end of the year is the earliest we can expect to see new feed into the Chinese market from the DRC,’ the battery metals expert continued.

As the deadline for the export halt extension drew near, prices began to climb amid rumors that officials in Kinshashe would implement quotas to continue curbing the market saturation.

After eight months of restricted trade, the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS), announced it was enacting a quota system aimed at stabilizing global supply and prices.

The output cap will permit the export of 18,125 metric tons of DRC cobalt for the remainder of 2025.

“In 2026, the annual quota is set at 96,600t, of which 87,000t will be distributed to producers on a pro rata basis, with 9,600t retained under ARECOMS’ discretionary control,” a September Benchmark Mineral Intelligence report notes. “The framework will run through 2027, with adjustments possible if officials deem the market ‘imbalanced.”

The restrictions lifted cobalt prices to a 32 month high of US$48,570 on October 23.

Strong cobalt demand projected for next two years

Although the cobalt market remains oversupplied, demand has steadily increased alongside ballooning output, reaching record levels of more than 200,000 metric tons in 2024.

“The primary growth driver of this (growth) is the electric vehicle market, combined with portables, which is the second biggest battery market,” explained Benchmark’s William Talbot during a July Cobalt Institute webinar.

The alloy and military applications segment also experienced growth.

Talbot went on to note that despite reports that EV demand is waning in some regions, broad demand remains robust, and EVs that utilize cobalt battery chemistries “are still growing at pace.”

“If we look at the EV picture year-to-date in 2025, we’ve had more than 30 percent growth compared to the same period last year in unit terms,” he explained.

Cobalt price growth to continue into 2026

The cobalt market is entering a phase of continued volatility and structural change, shaped by shifting supply sources, evolving policy frameworks and growing geopolitical tension, as per Benchmark’s Talbot and the Cobalt Institute.

Looking ahead, Benchmark expects Indonesia to overtake the DRC as the key source of new supply by the late 2020s, as projects such as Kalimantan Ferro Nickel ramp up and few new developments emerge in the DRC.

On the demand side, Talbot said the outlook remains “fairly robust,” with EV growth driving consumption, despite some policy headwinds in the US. He pointed to China’s planned ban on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery technology, which he said “is supportive of cobalt-containing chemistries” such as nickel cobalt manganese (NCM).

Rising geopolitical tensions are also reshaping the cobalt supply chain.

“Major players are increasingly cognizant of where their materials come from,” Talbot said, citing new US and European investment in strategic and ESG-compliant cobalt projects.

Talbot added that the cobalt value chain has made “leaps and bounds” in sustainability, with roughly 80 percent of refined cobalt now assessed under the Responsible Minerals Initiative — a key factor for automakers and original equipment manufacturers under tightening compliance requirements.

While Benchmark remains cautious with projections, analysts at Project Blue say cobalt prices could rebound sharply in 2026 and 2027 as the DRC enforces its new export cap of 96,600 metric tons per year.

“Such constraints could lift cobalt prices toward historical real levels of over US$20 per pound,” reads a Project Blue report, noting that the quota “came in lower than many expected,” but aligns with its call for a rebalanced market.

According to Project Blue, at least 100,000 metric tons of exports would be needed next year to maintain equilibrium. Accounting for shipping delays and processing losses, only 85,000 to 90,000 metric tons are expected to reach end users — creating a structural deficit that should continue to support prices. The quota framework could also spur domestic refining as export restrictions make long-term storage of cobalt hydroxide costly.

Industry observers warn that producers — especially copper-cobalt miners such as CMOC — may need to adopt financial hedging and adjust production plans to navigate the added bureaucracy and potential export delays.

Similarly, Fastmarkets expects the DRC’s new rules to support cobalt prices, which have already soared more than 240 percent since February, Alexander Cook wrote in an LME Week recap. Fastmarkets assessed cobalt hydroxide prices at US$19.50 to US$20.20 on October 14, up from just US$5.65 in February.

The restrictions have sharply curtailed available volumes — much of which are already locked into long-term contracts — leaving the spot market increasingly constrained, wrote Cook.

Market participants expect further gains, though analysts caution that such elevated prices could push some battery makers to accelerate the shift toward cobalt-free chemistries such as LFP.

While the quota system has bolstered prices in the short term, the long-term outlook remains uncertain.

Analysts note that cobalt’s fate is increasingly tied to copper market dynamics and the pace of EV demand recovery, with downstream buyers and automakers reassessing cobalt’s role in next-generation batteries.

3 tech stocks that moved markets this week

1. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU)

Micron Technology shares rose 4.46 percent this week, hitting a record high above US$214 on Monday (October 20) after analysts at Barclays (NYSE:BCS) raised their price target from US$195 to US$240, citing robust earnings and margin expansion as signs of operational strength. The company has reported surging demand for its high-bandwidth memory chips, with supply fully sold out through 2026. Other semiconductor stocks, such as ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) and KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC), also gained, reflecting broad semiconductor strength.

2. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Apple’s share price is up 2.7 percent for the week, boosted by an overall bullish sentiment for high-value tech stocks, as well as momentum from strong M5 MacBook demand and solid sales of the iPhone 17 in the US and China.

CEO Tim Cook later announced the opening of the company’s Texas manufacturing facility on Thursday, two months ahead of schedule, further boosting sentiment.

3. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)

Top AI stock NVIDIA saw gains of 1.67 percent this week following a joint announcement with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM). The companies said the first Blackwell wafer has been produced in the US at Taiwan Semiconductor’s semiconductor fab in Phoenix.

It is the first of its kind to be domestically manufactured in recent American history.

NVIDIA remains the bellwether for the AI sector, and its share price performance is widely regarded as a barometer for risk-on sentiment in the AI and tech sectors, with its share price movements often reflecting investor appetite for growth and optimism about the future of AI-driven innovation.

Micron Technology, NVIDIA and Apple performance, October 21 to 24, 2025.

Chart via Google Finance.

Tech ETF performance

This week, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) advanced by 1.83 percent, while the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) saw a weekly gain of 1.91 percent.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) increased by 1.59 percent.

Other tech market news

• Amazon Web Services experienced a major outage this week, raising concerns about cloud infrastructure resilience and spotlighting the critical dependency on hyperscale providers.

Tech news to watch next week

Next week, investors will be eyeing interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady, reflecting ongoing cautiousness amid cooling inflation, while US investors are betting on a rate cut from the the country’s central bank.

Earnings results from tech giants will also be closely watched, with Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft and Meta reporting on Wednesday (October 29), and Apple and Amazon on Thursday (October 30).

Strong beats or cautious guidance from these heavyweight companies could either boost confidence in the tech sector’s growth trajectory or temper enthusiasm in the final quarter of 2025.

Bullet briefing — What’s next for gold and silver?

Gold and silver prices perked up to end the week, rising to the US$4,100 and US$48.60 levels, respectively. But with the metals still off from their all-time highs, investors are wondering what’s next.

Opinions vary, but I’ve pulled together a couple of quotes that illustrate what I’m hearing.

First is Ed Steer of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest. He’s well known for his commentary on the precious metals space, and he weighed in on what’s next for silver, saying that today really is different compared to the other times silver rose to the US$50 level.

Here’s how he explained it:

‘It’s irrelevant what the price is today. You look at the big picture, and look at the fact that the BRICS+ have become an absolutely awesome juggernaut, and it’s absolutely unstoppable. And as we shift from the west to the east, as this continues economically, financially, it’s impossible to say where this is going to end up.

‘But what we’re living right now is we’re living through a major, major shift in financial power, from one area of the world to another, and we’re going to be — they’re going to be writing about this 1,000 years from now. So we’re living through history.’

Next we have Don Durrett of GoldStockData.com. This interview is from the week before last, so it’s a little older, but definitely still relevant. I’ve kept thinking about a comment Durrett made about one way we can tell the gold cycle is still early. This is what he said:

The thing that really reveals how early we are is the stock market is only 2 percent from an all-time high. What in the world is the stock market doing at an all-time high and gold at an all-time high? Those are antagonistic. Gold is supposed to be a hedge against uncertainty. The stock market is supposed to show basically confidence.

And so if you have an all-time high, people should be confident. Everything’s fine. We don’t need this. But people are not confident. People have said this is the most scary bull market ever. Nobody really believes in it, right? … So the question is, who’s telling the truth? Is the stock market telling the truth at an all time high, or is it gold is telling the truth? Well, it’s pretty obvious that gold’s the one telling the truth.

In It To Win It interview

Finally, if you’d like to hear more from me, I was recently interviewed by Steve Barton of In It To Win It.